FPL Planner

How it works

Every player gets a points forecast for each of the next 8 gameweeks. The forecast combines three models:

• Chance of playing 60+ minutes, from recent starts, minutes and FPL availability, overridden by published lineups when they're out.
• Points when they play 60+, a negative-binomial regression on form, expected goals and assists, fixture difficulty and price, adjusted per player.
• Points when they don't, a calibrated low baseline.

Your plan comes from a mixed-integer program that chooses the squad, starting XI, captain and transfers for all 8 weeks at once. It follows FPL's rules exactly: budget, formations, the 3-per-club limit, free-transfer banking up to 5, and −4 hits. Only this week's move is meant to be made; the rest is re-planned every week. Later weeks count for less (×0.85 per week), and every transfer carries a small cost so that plans don't chase forecast noise.

Chip advice compares each chip's gain this week with the value of saving it, worked out from a season-long replay of the planner.

The settings were tuned by replaying the whole 2025-26 season week by week, refitting on only what was known at each deadline, over many random seeds.

Limits

Forecasts are averages, and a single gameweek is mostly noise. Treat the plan as a well-informed second opinion, not a guarantee.

Data

Fantasy Premier League API · Understat · RotoWire lineups · FPL-Core-Insights (2024-25 defensive contributions, from FotMob data).